August SAAR data: A Fluke.

Although we are currently in one of the greatest eras for automobile development and innovation, sales are still tanking.

August’s US SAAR total sales have painted a reasonably grim picture. You may ask, “how?” or “why?” The approximate 1.2 million vehicle sales increase can be seen as artificial due to the incentives that you can find on 2008 models and gas guzzling sport utility vehicles.

Data: Bloomberg

A CNN report implied that due to oil’s recent pull back, currently near $106 per barrel, consumers are starting to get back into sport utility vehicles. Check the 8th and 9th paragraph of that story. I am not sure if I believe that as I do not see gas prices below $3.50 in my region; what would motivate someone to run out and buy a SUV?

Are the incentives that good? What does it matter if you pay your savings back in gas bills during the vested life of the vehicle?

Back to the SAAR data. Another crucial point which must be taken into consideration is that during this time of year, auto dealers are attempting to push out as many of the prior year’s cars out of their inventory before the new models are introduced. There is a seasonal re occurrence and you can see it on the Domestic Sales and Japanese Sales charts.

Data: Bloomberg

Last August, Domestics and Japanese autos saw a nice up-tick in their respective sales. This year, it appears that General Motors is seeing a similar trajectory while Ford and Chrysler are struggling. The Japanese are fairing well with similar trends in respect to last year.

Data: Bloomberg

Essentially, after taking into consideration the seasonality of August’s numbers, as well as the significant increase in incentives I can not foresee this year’s car sales to remain on this upward trend. I am calling August a fluke. It is extremely negative to see that Ford and Chrysler are struggling with sales this past month when there should have been an improvement in sales given the current incentive programs and 2008 model year liquidations.

Out of curiosity I inserted trend lines into these charts and it appears the only company which is doing well sales-wise is Honda. The company, known for its gas-sipping cars, recently surpassed the Ford F-150 as the most sold model in a given month - Three cheers for the Honda Civic. Pretty earth-shattering news for the car world.

If you want to see how bad things have gotten, look at the year-over-year numbers. They will turn anyone who is not squeamish a nice shade of green. US SAAR has declined nearly 16% while the big three, General Motors, Ford and Chrysler lost 20%, 25%, and 34%, respectively. The Japanese are doing much better albeit not well by any means; Toyota’s sales lost 9% YOY while Honda dropped 7% in sales.

The Domestics will have to keep their chin up during this time of distress and pray their new models and changes reverse their losses. Good luck, boys.

Watch for next month's SAAR data to downtrend, I can not see it rising or going flat.

rp