Showing posts with label Lehman Brothers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lehman Brothers. Show all posts

15.9.08

When it Rains it Pours.

Although the soul intent of this site is to provide automotive commentary, this is too big of a story to ignore.

News is breaking nearly every minute. I have been watching Marketwatch, Bloomberg and CNN in disbelief since 12:00 midnight.

The stories get worse every second.

MER and BAC in talks? What?! Now BAC is buying MER? What the hell?

LEH's suitors turned and walked? LEH is filing chapter 11. Wow.

$70 billion fund being set up? What is this?!

AIG is looking for a $40 billion loan from the Fed? How can this happen?

All hell is breaking loose on the street early Monday morning.

God help us all.

rp

14.9.08

Challenger Report: Painting an Ugly Picture

With the financial industry in chaos, thank you Lehman Brothers, the auto sector is looking quite subdued right now.

But wait, there’s more.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas is the nation’s first and oldest outplacement consulting firm. You know what that means; these are the job cuts guys. The firm’s most recently released report displays some rubbish numbers for the auto industry, which lead August in job cuts.

To be more specific, automotive accounted for 17,233 job cuts - a nice chunk out of the 88,736 cuts for August. Year-to-date, the automotive industry has tallied up a significant 80,323 cuts. This is nearly an 83 percent increase year-over-year from 43,897 cuts in August 2007.

Data: Challenger, Gray & Christmas

When I spoke with John Challenger, CG&C’s Chief Executive Officer, in July, he did not seem to believe we would surpass one million cuts for the year. Granted, many things have changed since and it appears that the markets will breach that epic number.

In his latest report, Challenger said “We have not seen this level of summer job cutting since 2002, when the country was still struggling to recover in the wake of the 2001 recession and September 11.”

I assume that at the current pace we will reach somewhere in between the levels of 2002 and 2003; approximately 1.2-1.4 million job cuts for the year 2008. Please note the graph “Yearly Job Cuts.” You can see the level we are at year-to-date compared to previous year totals.

Data: Challenger, Gray & Christmas

Clearly, this will yield a sizable impact on the auto builders. Not only will they be shedding staff to compensate for their cash burns, the companies will also experience even poorer sales due to less consumer spending.

With this in mind, I reinforce my position on September’s US SAAR Total Sales data coming back weaker from August.

Get out your helmets. It is going to be a rough ride into 2009.

rp